We are increasingly likely to blow past our climate goals soon, putting the world at a potentially dangerous level of climate change.
Global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above their pre-industrial levels within the next 15 years, according to a new scientific study, crossing the first threshold under the Paris Climate Agreement.
The study featured in the report written by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) focuses on a natural planetary system known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. IPO is an alternating pattern of ocean temperatures, phases of which can last a decade or longer, that shifts periodically between warm and cool phases, helping to drive temperature and weather patterns worldwide.
During cool, or “negative” phases, tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean tend to be colder, and the global mean temperature is lower. The phenomenon is believed to be a natural form of climate variability unrelated to human-caused climate change, although it does have the potential to influence the progression of global warming.
Many scientists believe the planet is now transitioning back into a positive, or warm phase. This means we could reach milestone temperature thresholds faster than we would if the IPO had remained in its negative phase.
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Source: The Straits Times, 11 May 2017