The release of the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report showed that even half a degree Celsius of extra warming will affect every nation, if world leaders do not take any actions.
The urgency stems from the fact that decades of data showed that a long-term build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is trapping heat and warming up lands, oceans and atmosphere.
17 of the 18 warmest years in the global temperature record have all occurred since 2001, with the exception of 1998. The year 2016 ranks as the warmest on record globally and here in Singapore, it had a mean annual temperature of 28.4 degree Celsius.
Temperatures in 2016 were already about 1 degree Celsius above the average in 1880, when global record-keeping began. This means the world has only 0.5 degree Celsius till it meets the limit recommended by the IPCC.
As a result, the IPCC report noted that emissions need to be cut by 45% by 2030 in order to keep warming within the 1.5 degree Celsius limit. Thus, decisions need to be made in the next two years to decommission coal-powered plants and replace them with renewables because major investments usually have a life cycle of at least a decade.
SEA-LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL FLOODING
Coastal and low-lying areas in Asia will be at an increased risk of flooding as the sea-level rise accelerates. Asia can expect sea levels to rise in excess of one metre if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced. It should be noted that Asia’s urban population is growing at unprecedented rates, 1.75 times faster than the global urban population.
Nineteen of the 25 cities most threatened by a one metre sea-level rise are in Asia, seven in the Philippines alone. Indonesia will be the country most affected by coastal flooding, with 5.9 million people affected every year until 2100.
Sea-level rise and flooding will have serious economic consequences. Global flood losses are expected to increase to US$52 billion (S$72 billion) a year by 2050 from US$6 billion in 2005.
Moreover, 13 of the top 20 cities with the largest probable annual flood losses from 2005 to 2050 are in Asia and the Pacific: Mumbai, Chennai, Surat and Kolkata (India); Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Zhanjiang and Xiamen (China); Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam); Jakarta (Indonesia); Bangkok (Thailand); and Nagoya (Japan).
FOOD RISK
In some countries of South-East Asia, rice yields could decline by up to 50% by 2100 if no adaptation efforts are made.
Food shortages could increase the number of malnourished children in South Asia by seven million, as import costs will probably increase to US$15 billion a year by 2050, compared with US$2 billion now.
MARINE ECOSYSTEMS
Particularly in the western Pacific, marine ecosystems will be in serious danger by 2100. All coral reef systems in the region will collapse due to mass coral bleaching if global warming proceeds as per the business-as-usual scenario.
The IPCC aims to hold this rise to 1.5 degree Celsius, but even then, 89% of coral reefs are expected to suffer serious bleaching, severely affecting reef-related fisheries and tourism.
Moreover, climate change will disrupt functioning ecosystem services such as food and water production and disease prevention, prompting mass migration – mostly to urban areas – that could make cities more crowded and overwhelm available social services. Deaths related to vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue may also increase.
HEALTH RISKS
Climate change also poses a significant risk to health in Asia and the Pacific. Already, 3.3 million people die every year due to the harmful effects of outdoor air pollution, with China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh being the top four countries experiencing such deaths.
In addition, heat-related deaths in the region among the elderly are expected to increase by about 52,000 cases by 2050 due to climate change, according to data from the World Health Organisation.
How feasible is it to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
To mitigate the impact of climate change, the IPCC report highlights the importance of implementing the commitments laid out in the Paris Agreement. These include public and private investments focused on the rapid decarbonisation of the Asian economy.
Climate mitigation and adaptation efforts should be mainstreamed into macro-level regional development strategies and micro-level project planning in all sectors, in addition to renewable energy and technology innovation efforts in urban infrastructure and transport.
A broader focus beyond technology is needed for South-East Asia, such as increased urban planning.
In addition, mitigation of greenhouse gases must be coupled with a change in land-use practices with significant global reforestation projects. That is, the establishment of forest on lands that were non-forest areas.
People may increasingly look to geo-engineering if the world heads towards dangerous levels of warming.
Read more here.
Source: The Straits Times, 14 October 2018