Singapore’s population has showed a general increasing trend. This is projected even in the future.
An effect of this huge population is higher amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. Note the similarity in trend for carbon dioxide emissions as well (below).
Why is this so? According to Birdsall (1992), he proposed 2 mechanisms in which population growth could contribute to greenhouse gas emissions.
1. Increased energy demands for power, industry and transportation.
Larger energy demands usually lead to increased fossil fuel extraction and burning – leading to higher emissions.
Data extracted from the World Bank indeed shows that energy consumption has risen over the years in Singapore.
Also, we have been consuming more electricity that is generated from these energy sources.
However, interestingly, most of the emissions is projected to come from industries in the future. This seems to be indirectly linked to population growth, which we will usually think of household consumption instead. However, a larger population will lead to increased demand for goods – factories will have to produce more to meet our increased consumption (a more indirect link). Refer to the diagram below to see predicted percentages for 2020.
2. Greater rate of deforestation e.g. in response to changes for land use.
Large scale deforestation has occured in Singapore since our Independence in 1959. We started moving towards urbanisation. By 1990, more than 99% of the original forest was cleared, more than half of Singapore had been urbanised and most of the plantations were abandoned (Corlett 1991, 1992).
Even after the 1990s, deforestation is still presently being carried out. Deforestation releases large amounts of carbon dioxide. This is as there will be less of their absorption by trees – Instead, it will be produced if the trees have been burnt or left to rot. Look at the diagram below to see Singapore’s deforestation effect on carbon dioxide emissions.
General findings
Our general findings between the positive correlation between population growth and emissions are supported by a study conducted by Shi (2001). He predicted that global emissions will be larger if a country has higher population growth – Greatest emissions under high population growth scenario (see below).
Population is positively correlated with carbon dioxide emissions (r = +0.51) – meaning: higher population leads to higher emissions.
| Variable | (1) | (2) | (3) | mean | std.dev | min | max |
| (1) | 42.72 | 148 | 0.01 | 1,447 | |||
| (2) | 0.21 (0.001) |
7,630 | 9,861 | 84.72 | 45,951 | ||
| (3) | 0.51 (0.001) |
-0.10 (0.001) |
45.01 | 138 | 0.16 | 1,215 | |
| (4) | 0.02 (0.296) |
0.71 (0.001) |
-0.14 (0.001) |
3.05 | 2.53 | 0.200 | 25.67 |
|
P values are in the parentheses |
|||||||
Interestingly, he found out that the impact of population pressure on emission is more pronounced in developing than developed countries. In low income countries, for example, a one- percent increase in population raised the emissions by 1.85%, 1.66% in lower middle income countries and 0.64% in high income countries.
| Variable | Low Income Countries |
Low Middle Income Countries |
Upper Middle Income Countries |
High Income Countries |
| (absolute t value in parentheses) | ||||
| Intercept | -24.47** (2.34) |
-20.52*** (5.73) |
-4.13 (0.79) |
-3.20 (0.82) |
| GDP per capita | 1.55*** (9.21) |
1.16*** (16.80) |
0.66*** (5.94) |
1.07*** (9.77) |
| Population | 1.85*** (2.81) |
1.66*** (7.96) |
0.96*** (3.08) |
0.64*** (2.97) |
| Energy Efficiency | -0.93*** (4.71) |
-0.55*** (8.60) |
-0.25*** (3.17) |
-0.21*** (5.24) |
| Rho | -0.49*** (12.00) |
-0.72*** (20.82) |
-0.92*** (34.60) |
-0.95*** (68.34) |
| fitness statistics | ||||
| Durbin-Watson AIC Degree of freedom Number of countries |
2.13 213 490 26 |
2.164 -944 469 24 |
1.89 -488 263 14 |
1.84 -1005 584 29 |
| All models include country and year fixed effects, and all variables are in ln forms. The error terms are adjusted for first-order autocorrelation, using maximum likelihood methods. Its coefficients (AR1) are represented by rho. ***P<0.01 **P<0.05 *P<0.10 |
||||
Based on these findings, the rise in emissions could at least be partially attributed to the increasing population. We are already ranked 26th among 142 countries per capita of emissions (see figure below). Multiplying this by a larger population will inevitably lead to a higher emission value.
