PHOTO CREDIT: KAZUHIRO NOGI / AFP
This is a series of works that examines the emergence of risk and resilience in Indonesia in the wake of Covid19 pandemic.
I. Micro Lockdown as an Alternative Strategy for Covid-19 Mitigation
This paper addresses two major social (non-pharmaceutical) strategies that have been employed to respond to the Covid-19 global pandemic, namely mitigation and suppression. Both aim to reduce the reproduction number of cases, which entail a reduction in human-to-human transmission. Social Distancing is typically implemented through massive campaigns to reduce human-to-human physical contact, while lockdown is a strategy that also pushes for social distancing but with extreme measures of enforcement. Social distancing and lockdown have strengths and weaknesses, and can be applied at different points of time during the outbreak period. In this paper, we offer another possible strategy, which serves a middle ground between social distancing and lockdown. We call this strategy as Micro Lockdown, which is designed to suit the social and economic conditions of Indonesia. We develop a model to show and compare the effect of four scenarios: 1) no intervention, 2) social distancing, 3) total lockdown, and 4) micro lockdown. We further elaborate the concept of micro lockdown and discuss the advantages of this strategy. We argue that micro lockdown is a better option for Indonesia to respond the Covid-19 crisis. In this paper, we suggest how this strategy can be implemented.
Download the paper here: MICRO LOCKDOWN AS AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
We build models and simulations to compare the effect of multiple scenarios of intervention on tCovid-19 transmission rates.
Below is a simulation of Social Distancing strategy with 65% of social compliance.
Below is a simulation of Micro Lockdown strategy
In the graphic below, multiple scenarios are compared.
II. Projection of Potential Covid19 Infection Cases in Jakarta Using a Proxy Method
Due to the lack of testing, the number of Covid-19 cases in Jakarta has been relatively low compared to other major cities around the world. Applying a proxy method, we make a projection of potential infection cases using data from 6 cities, namely New York City in the United States, Wuhan in China, Daegu in South Korea, Barcelona in Spain, and Il de France/Paris in France, and Berlin in Germany. Two variables are employed: Population Density (X axis) and Infection Intervals (Y axis). These are put into a linier regression as follows.
The graphic shows our projection:
III. Simulation of Covid-19 Community Transmission in High Density Area
In this work, we aim to understand how rapid Covid-19 spreads in a community living in a densely area in Jakarta.
Community transmission with 2 index cases:
Community transmission with 4 index cases:
IV. Risk Perception of Covid-19
In this work, we are conducting an online survey to measure the level of risk perception of Jakarta residents towards Covid-19. The survey consists of 6 variables as follows:
- Risk Perception
- Knowledge
- Information
- Self Protection
- Social Capital
- Economy
Below is the result of our survey of risk perception in Jakarta. The survey was carried out from 29 May to 20 June 2020 with 154,471 respondents across all districts in the city of Jakarta. The survey has resulted in a set of recommendations that have been adopted by the Jakarta City Government in the programs to enhance public understanding and risk perception of Covid-19.
In addition to Jakarta, we also conducted the risk perception survey in another two cities, namely Surabaya and Bogor. The slides for both surveys are provided below:
V. A Simulation and Projection on the Breakdown of Hospital Capacity in Jakarta
As the number of infection cases is arising in Jakarta during the period of July to August, we conducted a small study to predict when the hospital capacity in Jakarta will be overloaded by incoming Covid-19 patients. The study consists of two parts: the first one looks into the cause of rapid growth in infection cases primarily attributed to the reopening of public places and economic activities, the other develops a simulation to project when the hospital capacity will breakdown and how much the mortality rate caused by the situation.
VI. CovidMood Mapping
In anticipation to the implementation of the second large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in Jakarta, we conducted a survey to we measure public acceptance of PSBB using the CovidMood mapping method. We developed CovidMood as a psycho-social method to analyze emotional feeling of the public towards certain issues using semantic differential scale. In this survey, we measure the public mood of Covid-19 against two variables: the level of public satisfaction on government policy/performance and the level of public happiness of socio-economic situations.
The survey was conducted from 11 to 14 September 2020. A Quota sampling method is applied using the Qualtrics platform to distribute the questionnaire. Data from 82,655 respondents across Jakarta is collected. We targeted every RW to have at least 10 respondents. Out of 267 Kelurahan, 22 Kelurahan did not make the cut. To avoid data disproportion caused by Kelurahans with oversized number of respondents, the data is calibrated at each Kelurahan.
The survey results are shown in the following pictures. The first one shows public acceptance at the Kelurahan level, while the second at the individual level.
