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The linear model of production has dominated the global industrial systems since the Industrial Revolution. In the linear production model, raw materials and resources are extracted from the Earth, refined or processed, and then transported to factories to be manufactured into various products. The final products are transported to their final destinations, bought by consumers, used, and then discarded when they have ended their lifespan or become obsolete (i.e. replaced by newer versions).

In this linear economy, materials are sometimes accessed and moved across the world, not just once but many times over.


The vast majority of discarded products (waste) is taken to landfill or incinerated; only a small portion recovered or recycled. In sum, it is a “take, make, and waste” model where waste is produced, and energy is expended, at every step.

Source: Based on Bob Doppelt, The Power of Unsustainable Thinking (2008) and Systems Conditions, The natural step
Source: Based on Bob Doppelt, The Power of Unsustainable Thinking (2008) and Systems Conditions, The natural step

The “take, make, and waste” approach results in significant resource losses throughout the production process. However, low prices of resource and labor reinforce this system, as does the ease of acquiring new resources and the low costs to dispose of waste.

Material recovery is therefore not a high priority in our economic system. In 2010 alone, 65 billion tonnes of virgin raw material entered the global production systems.  This figure is expected to grow to 82 billion tonnes by 2020.

Source: OECD; Belvens 2007; WMM Global Insight; Ellen MacArthur Foundation circular economy team
Source: OECD; Belvens 2007; WMM Global Insight; Ellen MacArthur Foundation circular economy team

The linear production model incurs and perpetuates unnecessary resource losses in several ways. Explore the tabs below to find out how.

During the production of goods, large volumes of valuable materials are lost between the initial resource extraction processes and the final manufacturing process.

The Sustainable Europe Institute (SERI) estimates annual manufacturing processes in OECD countries consume over 21 billion tonnes of materials that are not part of the final products created. In other words, these materials never utilized in the economic system, such as extracted by-products materials from mining, by-catch from fishing, collateral losses from logging and agricultural harvesting, and soil excavation and dredging from construction


A Food Industry and Waste Example

Worldwide, about one –third of all food produced ($US 1 trillion) gets lost of wasted within the production, distribution and consumption systems. Food loss occur mainly during the production stages (harvesting, processing, distribution) while food wastes occur at the end of the food supply chain (retailer, consumer).

Source: FAO (2011) Source: FAO (2011)

Waste is not only an environmental problem, but also a form of economic loss. In 2010, Europe produced 2.7 billion tonnes of waste, of which only 40% reused, recycled, or composted. The high rate of material loss at the end-of-life of production means that more materials must be extracted, processed, and fed into the production system, perpetuating the waste cycle.

Source: Eurostat Waste Statistics (2011) Source: Eurostat Waste Statistics (2011)


Waste Streams Losses and Recovery Rates

A recent UNEP report on global production waste streams noted that only around one third of the 60 metals it analyzed in the study had an end-of-life recycling rate of 25% or more. Deeper analysis revealed that even for metals with high recycling rates, significant values were lost anually – approximately USD 53 billion (copper), USD 15 billion (aluminum), USD 34 billion (gold) and USD 7 billion (silver).

Similar losses are visible at an industry level. Rubble from construction and demolition of buildings contains numerous materials with recyclable potential (e.g. steel, wood, concrete). Yet, rubble accounts for 26% of the non-industrial solid waste produced in the United States, of which only 20–30% is recycled or reused.

The significant loss of valuable materials within the system is the collective result of inappropriate design, system inefficiency, and waste proliferation paradigm of existing production models.


Source: EPA (2010); Ellen MacArthur Foundation circular economy team Source: EPA (2010); Ellen MacArthur Foundation circular economy team

Apart from regular waste, the linear production system also loses a lot of energy. This is especially true upstream – the early portion of the supply chain when resources are extracted, refined, and purified. For example, in aluminum production, upstream processes such as refining, smelting, and casting account for around 80% of energy consumed (and 67% of total costs incurred).

In the case of aluminum, recycling rates are high because of the energy cost saving potential. However, this is not the case for most other metals. Yet, energy loss is still a relevant concept for every production process because of our diminishing fossil fuel supply. Therefore, it is important to consider the cost of energy (losses) throughout a product’s lifetime, to manage unnecessary wastage of energy.

Fifteen of the 24 direct and indirect ecosystem services that support and enhance human well-being assessed as part of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) are being degraded or used unsustainably. The erosion of these ecosystem services dramatically reduces the planet’s natural capital, impacting human wellbeing and the long-term viability of goods and services we derive from the environment.

The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) report stated that ecosystem services losses from deforestation in China alone cost the global economy USD 12 billion per annum between 1950 and 1998. These losses were tallied across several dimensions, including the cost of lost climate and water regulation potential, the depletion of timber and fuel resources, losses of agricultural productivity, and the costs of lost nutrient cycling and flood prevention potential.


 

Trends of a waning Linear Economy
  • Increased exposure of businesses to externalities and risk, in the form of higher and less predictable resource prices, alongside supply disruptions as a result of increased competition for limited quantities of resources
  • Current gains made in manufacturing are largely incremental with low efficiency, and are insufficient to facilitate real competitive advantage or drive economic growth
  • Declines in agricultural productivity have led to more intensive inputs and associated costs, due to reduced soil fertility and lowered nutrition value of produce. This causes a disparity in input costs to output value.
  • Increased risk to supply security and safety due to widespread and elaborate networks of optimized global supply chains. Significant leakages occur as a result of disperse global supply chains (See Section 3.4)
  • Resource intensive production operations struggle for “a license to operate” within sensitive, local and limited resource markets. Higher values placed on resources in such (resource scarce/sensitive) regions significantly diminish the operational capabilities of resource intensive operations.

Supplementary Resources

US Chamber of Commerce Foundation “How long can our linear waste economy continue?”

World Economic Forum “The Limits of Linear Consumption”